Due to the substantial upfront costs associated with AI systems, only 23% of worker compensation linked to AI computer vision is deemed economically feasible for firms to automate, according to the study.
Since the advent of advanced generative AI tools, both employees and employers have been contemplating whether AI will take, alter, or eliminate jobs. While there are instances where organizations have downsized their teams to incorporate AI assistance, a recent study suggests that AI is generally too costly to replace humans in most jobs fully.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology conducted a study to address concerns about artificial intelligence replacing humans across various industries. The findings reveal that, at present, artificial intelligence cannot efficiently and cost-effectively replace the majority of jobs.
In one of the initial comprehensive examinations of the potential for AI to replace human labor, researchers focused on modeling the cost-effectiveness of automating different tasks in the US, particularly jobs utilizing computer vision, such as teachers and property appraisers.
The study revealed that only 23% of workers, measured in dollar wages, could be efficiently replaced. In certain instances, the cost of installing and operating AI-assisted visual recognition made human involvement more economically viable.
The widespread adoption of AI across various industries gained momentum last year, particularly fuelled by the success of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and other generative tools that showcased the technology’s potential.
Tech giants, including Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. in the U.S. and Baidu Inc. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. in China, introduced new AI services and intensified their development initiatives.
However, some industry leaders expressed concerns about the rapid pace of these advancements, cautioning that it may need to be more timely. Apprehensions about the impact of AI on employment have consistently been a central concern in discussions surrounding the technology.
“‘Machines will steal our jobs’ is a sentiment commonly voiced during periods of swift technological advancement. This apprehension has resurfaced with the development of large language models,” as researchers from MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory stated in their 45-page paper titled “Beyond AI Exposure.”
The paper notes, “Only 23% of worker compensation ‘exposed’ to AI computer vision would be cost-effective for firms to automate because of the large upfront costs of AI systems.”
Computer vision, a subset of AI, empowers machines to extract meaningful information from digital images and other visual inputs. Its widespread applications are evident in object detection systems for autonomous driving and in assisting with the categorization of photos on smartphones.
The cost-benefit ratio of computer vision is particularly favorable in sectors such as retail, transportation, and warehousing, where major players like Walmart Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. operate prominently. The feasibility of its application extends to the healthcare context, as noted in MIT’s paper.
The authors suggest that a more aggressive AI rollout, especially through AI-as-a-service subscription offerings, could enhance the scalability and viability of other applications. The study, funded by the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab, utilized online surveys to gather data on approximately 1,000 visually assisted tasks across 800 occupations. Currently, only 3% of such tasks can be cost-effectively automated, but this figure could rise to 40% by 2030 if data costs decrease and accuracy improves, according to the researchers.
The sophistication exhibited by ChatGPT and its counterparts, such as Google’s Bard, has reignited concerns about AI displacing jobs. These advanced chatbots demonstrate proficiency in tasks traditionally exclusive to human capabilities.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently stated that nearly 40% of jobs worldwide would be affected, emphasizing the need for policymakers to balance AI’s potential with its potential negative consequences carefully. Discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week prominently centered around the impact of AI on the workforce.
Mustafa Suleyman, the Inflection AI and Google’s DeepMind co-founder, expressed the view that AI systems are “fundamentally labour-replacing tools.” The paper included a case study involving a hypothetical bakery.
According to the researchers, bakers, who visually inspect ingredients for quality control daily, spend only 6% of their time on this task. Despite potential time and wage savings from implementing cameras and an AI system, they concluded that the cost of such a technological upgrade still outweighs the benefits.
Neil Thompson, the director of the FutureTech Research Project at the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, commented, “Our study examines the usage of computer vision across the economy, evaluating its applicability to each occupation across nearly every industry and sector. We show that there will be more automation in retail and health care, and less in areas like construction, mining, or real estate,” in an email statement.
